Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 27/2207Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 072
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10