Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 28/0035Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3743 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 068
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 068/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20