Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1735Z from Region 2936 (N17E23). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 28/0003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 493 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 113
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 114/118/118
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/012-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20