Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 28/0030Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 076
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 076/075/074
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 006/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20