Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2019

IA. 
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. 
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with
a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 28/0041Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1386 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The
geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jan),
quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet to active
levels on day three (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 076
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 075/073/070
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/40