Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 27/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2495 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 079
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan 078/077/075
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  011/012-010/012-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/35
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/50