Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 28/1202Z from Region 2488 (N04W55). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 376 km/s at 28/0834Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 676 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 110
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/15