Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/0441Z from Region 2268 (S10W05). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at 28/0330Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/0402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0531Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 159
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 011/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
