Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2013

*RETRANSMISSION*

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1834Z from Region 1660 (N13, L=065) which is about a day beyond West
limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29
Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
28/0310Z and was slowly decreasing throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 098
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 100/110/120
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10