Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/0646Z from Region 2804 (N18W87). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Mar) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 28/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2733 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 078
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 078/074/074
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 010/012-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/25
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/60/40