Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 28/1929Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2384 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 070
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  019/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  016/020-012/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/35