Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 27/2242Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 637 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 069
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 069/068/070
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/15