Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 28/0752Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 082
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 082/082/081
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  021/030-015/020-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/40