- Status Report
- Jan 30, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 28/0752Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 082
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 082/082/081
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 021/030-015/020-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/40