Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 28/0509Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 28/0930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1134 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 093
Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 095/105/110
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/35/30
Major-severe storm 10/40/25