Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 28/0939Z from Region 2294 (S13W28). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 28/2054Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 123
Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 28 Feb 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 016/022-018/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/60/40