Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 February 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 28/0939Z from Region 2294 (S13W28). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 28/2054Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1931Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           28 Feb 123

Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 130/130/125

90 Day Mean        28 Feb 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  016/022-018/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/40/30

Minor Storm           25/25/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    60/60/40