Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 28/0105Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 072
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20