Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 28/0112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1545 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Dec, 30 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 071
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 074

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/35