Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 27/2221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12391 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (31 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 073
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 073/070/072
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 006/005-010/012-017/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/50/55