Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1759Z from Region 2248 (S19E07). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 27/2257Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 646 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 25/20/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 133
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
