Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 27/2223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (29 Aug, 30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 085
Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 085/082/082
90 Day Mean 28 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 014/020-014/018-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15