Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 28/2043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2102Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).

III. Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 068
Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 28 Apr 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 008/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25