Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 27/2030Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 27/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 066
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 013/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 030/045-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 40/25/10
Major-severe storm 20/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 75/60/40