Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 27/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3210 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 067
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15