Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 27, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/0748Z from Region 2597 (S14W52). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 27/2023Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6692 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 086
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 033/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 028/040-028/044-025/038

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/40/40

SpaceRef staff editor.