Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
September 27, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/1040Z from Region 2422 (S20W16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at 27/0743Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 476 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 128
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.