Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
27/1754Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 108
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  005/005-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/25