Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 26/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19940 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Oct, 29 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (30 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 082
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25