Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 27/0537Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2329Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 069
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  005/005-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/40