Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1897 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 076
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  006/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10