Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 26/2121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1835Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 47726 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 079
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 078/078/080
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 031/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 017/024-015/018-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20