Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 27, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 27/1429Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (28 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 480 km/s at 27/1429Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 110
Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 27 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/008-010/012-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/35

SpaceRef staff editor.