Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 27/0616Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2310 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 106
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 106/104/102
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10