Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to

27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at

27/0047Z from Region 2222 (S20E59). There are currently 8 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov,

30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

431 km/s at 27/1938Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/0716Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1828Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30

Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           27 Nov 179

Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 180/185/185

90 Day Mean        27 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10