Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/1539Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at
27/1725Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 27/1552Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 27/1337Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 129
Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 27 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05