Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast. 27 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 27/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).

III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 068
Predicted 28 May-30 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/20