Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0604Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/0947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0742Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 068
Predicted   28 May-30 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        27 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  010/012-011/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    30/35/30