Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 May 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
May 27, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 27/2003Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 May, 29 May) and quiet levels on day three (30 May).

III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 075
Predicted   28 May-30 May 073/072/072
90 Day Mean        27 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  008/008-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/05

SpaceRef staff editor.