Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 May, 29 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached averaged velocities less than 350 km/s. Total IMF reached a peak of 7 nT. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).
III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 095
Predicted 28 May-30 May 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 27 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 007/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
