Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/1415Z from Region 2065 (S19, L-147). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 May,
29 May, 30 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at
27/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 367 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (28 May, 30 May) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (29 May).

III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 106
Predicted 28 May-30 May 102/100/100
90 Day Mean 27 May 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 006/005-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/20/05