Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 27/0422Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1003Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 152 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 069
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  014/018-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/25