Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 March 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
March 27, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 27/0829Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42354 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 068
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  006/005-013/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/35

SpaceRef staff editor.