Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 27/0752Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/0926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/1541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 400 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (30 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 088
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 085/080/080
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 011/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10