Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/1509Z from Region 2309 (N14W79). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 465 km/s at 26/2152Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1817Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4691 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 138
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 017/025-017/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
