Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/2029Z from Region 2010 (S15W68). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 27/0458Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2310Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0804Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 145
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05