Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic km/s at 26/2122Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3636 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 098
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 009/012-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/10