Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 27/1937Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 27/1015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jun,

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 069
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 009/008-007/006-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20