Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 744 km/s at 27/0041Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3939 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 070
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 070/069/068
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  017/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  008/010-006/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/35/20