Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 26/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 490 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 074
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  006/005-008/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/20