Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 27/0321Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/2216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1257 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jun, 29 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 075
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 075/078/080
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/15/35
Major-severe storm 05/05/40