Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/1104Z from Region 2371 (N12W79). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Jun, 29 Jun) and likely to be low on day three (30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 876 km/s at 27/0457Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0638Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 27/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5777 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (29 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 60/60/05
Class X 20/20/01
Proton 50/20/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 097
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 010/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
